Silver has reached an unprecedented milestone, with XAG/USD climbing above $115 this week. The move has been driven by a weaker US dollar amid inconsistent policy signals from the White House, alongside additional influences such as geopolitical tensions and robust industrial demand for silver.
Since the start of the year, silver prices have risen by over 50%, extending a sharp bullish trend that first emerged in 2025.
At first glance, the rally in precious metals appears relentless. However, the price chart is beginning to flash signals that warrant caution.
XAG/USD Technical Outlook
Current price action is unfolding within a wide ascending channel. Several notable features stand out:
→ A pronounced increase in volatility, clearly reflected by the ATR indicator, which accelerated once prices moved beyond the key psychological level of $100.
→ A swift decline from point A to point B — roughly 12% in a single trading session — taking price from the channel’s upper boundary down to its midpoint. Such a move is unlikely to be caused by retail traders alone.
Taken together, these observations suggest that once silver cleared $100 per ounce, buying activity became increasingly speculative. At the same time, “smart money” appears to be taking advantage of broad market participation to lock in profits on long positions following an extraordinary advance of more than 200% over the past six months. From a Wyckoff perspective, this behaviour is characteristic of a distribution phase.
Should the chart begin to show false bullish breakouts above resistance, combined with decisive breaks below support, it would further strengthen the case for this scenario.
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